As the BFCM dust settles, it’s time to plan for Q4 and 2026. We’re offering you 30 monthly deliverables,10 ad types, media buying, and access to Tier 11’s data suite to help you maximize profits with Meta ads.
Claim your Creative Diversification Package at: https://www.tiereleven.com/cd
Record Black Friday sales don’t mean anything if you shredded your margins to get there. In this episode, we reveal the hidden metrics behind a profitable BFCM, from average order value segmentation to subscription velocity and discount impact.
Lauren shares the three buyer groups you must analyze to understand whether you actually grew or silently lost money. You’ll also learn what to do right now to turn BFCM buyers into profitable repeat customers in Q4 and beyond.
In this episode:
05:21 Black Friday success myths
08:41 How to measure Black Friday success
12:40 Creating a profitable seasonal offer
17:46 Segmenting and retargeting your BFCM buyers
27:57 Selling to Costco vs. Walmart buyers
33:43 Preparing offers for Q4 and 2026
Resources mentioned in this episode:
Marketing Performance Indicators Checklist: https://perpetualtraffic.com/mpi/
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Connect with Ralph Burns:
- LinkedIn – https://www.linkedin.com/in/ralphburns
- Instagram – https://www.instagram.com/ralphhburns/
- Hire Tier11 – https://www.tiereleven.com/apply-now
Connect with Lauren Petrullo:
- Instagram – https://www.instagram.com/laurenepetrullo/
- LinkedIn – https://www.linkedin.com/in/laurenpetrullo
- Consult Mongoose Media – https://mongoosemedia.us/
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READ THE TRANSCRIPT:
STOP: Analyze These 3 Crucial Buyers Post-BFCM to Maximize Q4 Profit
00:00:00:00 – 00:00:15:00
Lauren
You cannot build on the success of this year’s Black Friday if you wait till next September. A lot of people are going to be like, yay! I made all of this revenue in November, and then they’re going to mess up their profitability for all of 2026.
00:00:15:02 – 00:00:20:17
Ralph
How do you measure success from Black Friday? And then what do you do in this time? Right now?
00:00:20:18 – 00:00:39:10
Lauren
We’ve talked a lot in the show, Ralph, about marketing performance indicators that matter. Right. Your Ncac, your name of your mother, like the numbers that help you not break the bank. But the piece that I want, if you’re listening to Take Note is.
00:00:39:12 – 00:01:09:19
Ralph
Hey, before we get into today’s show, just a quick reminder that we are still offering the creative diversification package over it to your 1130 plus creatives per month, 5 to 7 variations every single week. Plus, you get the media buying and the tier 11 data suite for free. This offer is through the end of the year, and now is the perfect time for you to meet with our team and plan out your Q1, Q2, and Q3 exactly like we’re going to be talking about here.
00:01:09:21 – 00:01:31:13
Ralph
The learnings that you will gain from Black Friday, Cyber Monday. This is the opportune time to talk with our team about how you can crush it in 2026, using creative diversification. It’s the biggest breakthrough on meta since ads in the newsfeed back in 2013. Once again, you buy the creative diversification package, you get the media buying and the tier 11 data suite for free.
00:01:31:15 – 00:01:53:00
Ralph
Limited time offer through the end of the year. Check it out over at tier 11. Com forward slash CD. Hello and welcome to the Perpetual Traffic Podcast. This is your host, Ralph Burns, founder and CEO of tier 11. Alongside my amazing, not even frazzled, not even upset, not even Lacking Sleep co-host.
00:01:53:03 – 00:02:11:02
Lauren
Lord He Petrou, a founder of Mongoose Media and very dear friend to someone who’s got a bigger nose in Pinocchio right now. Like what? It’s November. What are you talking about, silly? That’s a five letter word for someone else who’s not in Black Friday, Cyber Monday chaos.
00:02:11:04 – 00:02:33:21
Ralph
Well, we are right in the middle of it right now. So as of this recording, we were actually pre Black Friday, and you look great for somebody who hasn’t slept in like two weeks. So, but anyway, we’re going to be talking today about lessons learned a bit, how to measure success on Black Friday, Cyber Monday. Because that’s when this recording is actually going to air.
00:02:33:23 – 00:02:57:03
Ralph
You the business owner, you the director of marketing, you, the VP of marketing are going to be right. The smack dab, middle of or the beginning part of the holiday season post Black Friday, Cyber Monday. So we’re going to be talking about all that here, in just a second. But a little shout out here. She’s got a nice email this morning, which mentions me and you and I think, oh, it’s great.
00:02:57:03 – 00:03:18:04
Ralph
Yeah, I know, we really just need to read more reviews on air because we always say that we will, but we never do. But we will in the future. The point is this is that, got a great email from Lisa Russo who said, thank you so much. I love the podcast. You and Lauren both, both of you have a great dynamic and it’s always jam packed full of great info.
00:03:18:04 – 00:03:33:15
Ralph
So I’m seeing that for you. Or so because I know right now is sort of a challenging time, for a lot of things within Mongoose Media. So having said that, we’re right in the middle of everything right now.
00:03:33:15 – 00:03:36:17
Lauren
But there’s no friend November right now.
00:03:36:17 – 00:03:52:04
Ralph
No friend November. I can’t believe you’re at a conference. Like, what is Ryan Dice thinking throwing a conference in the middle of Black Friday like Cyber Monday week? It’s insane. Just it’s clear to me he doesn’t do anything. Black Friday, cyber Monday. He, like, takes it off.
00:03:52:06 – 00:03:54:08
Lauren
Although he usually has a team.
00:03:54:10 – 00:03:57:06
Ralph
He used to have a great webinar, Black Friday.
00:03:57:07 – 00:03:58:06
Lauren
Well, we.
00:03:58:08 – 00:04:02:23
Ralph
Used to do that with Molly. You know? Yeah, it was amazing. Was like a three hour webinar. It was like the best.
00:04:02:23 – 00:04:04:15
Lauren
Thing on Black Friday.
00:04:04:17 – 00:04:06:03
Ralph
On Black Friday.
00:04:06:05 – 00:04:08:18
Lauren
Oh, shoot. You know what? I have a webinar on Black Friday.
00:04:09:00 – 00:04:11:08
Ralph
Why you know, maybe you’re maybe you’re right.
00:04:11:08 – 00:04:27:18
Lauren
Oh, I didn’t even realize it. Like, I’m doing it like we’re doing webinars, not every Friday. And I’m like, oh no, that means there’s one on Black Friday. But the reality is, is Black Friday is the easiest day of the whole holiday. It’s Thanksgiving that’s the hardest because all of your U.S based team, like none of them want to work.
00:04:27:18 – 00:04:46:13
Lauren
But that’s like you’re potentially launching if you are doing Black Friday specific ads or different creative, and it’s the biggest day. So it’s just before people sign off especially are like corporate clients. They’re clocked out at 3 p.m. on Wednesday before. So if something comes up, it’s an emergency.
00:04:46:14 – 00:05:00:00
Ralph
Yeah. If you need some kind of change the last minute, forget it. It’s not it’s like it’s a very stressful day, especially in the US. But thank God for overseas workers are non-U.S.. You know.
00:05:00:02 – 00:05:06:15
Lauren
Yeah. Our Canadian team. Oh my gosh we love that their Thanksgiving is in October. Thank you thank you Canada.
00:05:06:15 – 00:05:27:00
Ralph
So good. So it’s great all day by the way. Like we have we have family up in Canada. We get invited every single year for Canadian Thanksgiving. We’ve never done it. I’m dying to go. We had something happen this year again. But anyway, that’s not it. That’s not the point of today’s show. So if you’re a VP of marketing, your CMO, your director of marketing, this show is for you.
00:05:27:00 – 00:05:49:20
Ralph
Because and or if you’re the CEO, run on the whole damn thing doing all the marketing yourself. We’re going to give you some lessons learned from maybe phase one to a certain degree, maybe some offer lessons that you’ve seen that maybe didn’t work out so well, or maybe just weren’t really that great to begin with. But more importantly, how do you measure success from Black Friday?
00:05:49:20 – 00:06:04:07
Ralph
And then what do you do in this time right now? So I know that was a lot of questions all jumbled together, but I know you’ve got a lot of things sort of spinning around in that head of yours. So attack one of those. Yeah. In any sort of order.
00:06:04:07 – 00:06:15:21
Lauren
You’d like the piece that I want, if you’re listening to Take Note is at the time of this record, like when you’re listening to this, Black Friday is over.
00:06:15:23 – 00:06:16:05
Ralph
Yeah.
00:06:16:09 – 00:06:39:04
Lauren
Only for your customers. It does not end for you, the business owner. And if you think, oh, good, what a relief. Pause. Breathe. Slap that stupid notion out of your head. Because the reality is, is you cannot build on the success of this year’s Black Friday. If you wait till next September, I will argue till I’m blue in the face.
00:06:39:04 – 00:07:04:14
Lauren
Black Friday starts in July. June for planning, July for solidifying your offer. Getting leads in August, testing a soft Black Friday offer with Labor Day, and then pivoting after Labor Day sales to find new audiences. Continue to build it so that you have a successful Black Friday. The reality is, though, this year, looking at Black Friday, you have to understand your numbers.
00:07:04:16 – 00:07:34:15
Lauren
Otherwise, I think a lot of people are going to be like, yeah, I made all of this revenue in November and then either screw their revenue up to February because they’ve sold a bunch of bundles, they’re going to mess up their profitability for all of 2026. If they continue to just guess at what Black Friday could be, and they’re going to invest in the wrong channels, the wrong audiences, the wrong messaging, if they don’t understand and dial in what was the true effect of Black Friday to their profit line?
00:07:34:17 – 00:07:40:10
Lauren
Yeah, I hate Black Friday. Hate it. I hate it. It’s cheaper.
00:07:41:08 – 00:08:00:07
Lauren
Cheapest way to lose money. You give away all of your margin and you pay the most you ever get for customers. And the large majority of the time, the people that are buying for Black Friday are never going to buy from you again unless you actually manage. How is Black Friday? And then you start looking at what is the velocity to sales from someone that’s new.
00:08:00:07 – 00:08:23:17
Lauren
That came in for Black Friday for their second purchase. If you review the commitment of the people that came to your Black Friday offer from whatever their previous engagement was with your brand, if you got subscriptions, Lord help me, I hope you had a subscription acquisition play for Black Friday or what was the point? I’m saying, okay, so this is no friend November.
00:08:23:17 – 00:08:24:03
Lauren
So is this.
00:08:24:03 – 00:08:43:11
Ralph
Like, this is, is a stupid offer time really hitting on that has right where where? Aaron. This this is the first week in December. Right. So Black Friday is in the rearview mirror. I think there’s a couple of different things. And I’m going to try and control your ranting here, because I know your stake of black. But like, how do you measure success?
00:08:43:11 – 00:09:02:14
Ralph
Because this is this is always this thing. It’s like, hey, how is your Black Friday? Like, oh, great, we sold 50% more than we did last year. I’m like, well, I’ll profitable where you you know, there’s always like that. I hate when I talk to clients and I have to ask these sorts of questions, but I mean, that is kind of the purpose of business, if I’m not mistaken.
00:09:02:14 – 00:09:24:12
Ralph
Yes, there is your purpose, your higher you know, your you know, your why is Simon Sinek. But at the end of the day, I mean, you are trying to acquire customers, acquire them at a profit and actually get them to buy more often and over and over again. So they become loyal customers and advocates for your brand. I believe that is the goal of business, if I’m not mistaken.
00:09:24:18 – 00:09:35:21
Ralph
So how do you sort of measure all of this craziness, like after the fact, like in the first week of December, like what, what kind of conversations you have with clients?
00:09:36:00 – 00:09:53:22
Lauren
So I think the main conversations of clients is like, when did we hit our revenue targets? Because that’s where we have to start. What were the revenue targets? Did we hit them, and what are Decembers revenue targets? Because we have this. When Black Friday this late, we go straight into holiday season. If you’re e-commerce, you have this get it before Christmas deadline.
00:09:53:22 – 00:10:11:04
Lauren
So the post office says it must be done by December 15th or December 17th. So you had this like big race for e-commerce people. You have Q five. So a lot of people want to rest their laurels. So it’s kind of like, hold on. First, let’s say did we hit our revenue targets? Okay. What revenue target adjustments do you make for the month of December?
00:10:11:06 – 00:10:28:22
Lauren
And then before everyone wants to go on break on holiday, we need to make sure that we are super aligned with what are our holiday sales, what is our Q5 plan and what capacity do you have to sprint into the final end of the year? Because a lot of folks will neglect Q5, which is Christmas Day to New Year’s Eve.
00:10:28:22 – 00:10:50:12
Lauren
Some people will argue that it extends as soon as like that last day to ship, but that’s exclusively for e-commerce. For me, Q5 is Christmas dated New Year’s Eve. It’s the cheapest time you’re going to buy ads on social media ever. When there’s the most amount of time that people are on their devices, especially especially for Gen Alpha and younger Gen Zers, they’re home from college or they’re not distracted.
00:10:50:14 – 00:11:08:02
Lauren
They are ready and they have regrets from whatever they did not get for the holidays. They have gift cards forever. They’re going to spend and they’re in a pre-planning pre new year, new me. So it’s the greatest time and the cheapest time for you to get in front of people. So as soon as Black Friday ends we have to review revenue targets.
00:11:08:02 – 00:11:30:08
Lauren
We have to align on what our December goals are. We have to affirm what resources are available because a lot of clients they check out. I know most of my friends, those agency owners, they close their office for two weeks on the 23rd and I’m like, great, we will sweep up your lunch. But that’s okay. Like how they like celebrate the holidays.
00:11:30:08 – 00:11:52:19
Lauren
That’s on them. But so that’s the first type of the conversation. And then the shift this year in the conversation is gonna be like, okay, let’s look at your Black Friday numbers. We’ve talked a lot in the show, Ralph, about our NPIs. Right. The marketing performance indicators that matter. Right. Your Ncac, your name of your mother, like the numbers that help you not break the bank when scaling.
00:11:52:19 – 00:11:55:07
Lauren
You want to scale profitably, not scale at a loss.
00:11:56:13 – 00:12:20:02
Lauren
We have to analyze. Was our Black Friday Cyber Monday success scaling at a loss? And if so, what is the cash that we have now allowed us to? What’s our runway to compensate for that loss? And what is our re acquisition strategy for anyone that came in from Black Friday? That has to be the second conversation. Target revenue alignment on December.
00:12:20:03 – 00:12:40:09
Lauren
Now we have to look at what runway do we have before we reacquire that scalability that we had in October November at a loss to back to a profit, so that we’re not just reliant on a cash influx in and October, November, December time, but can have a sustainable business through 2026.
00:12:40:12 – 00:13:03:18
Ralph
So the the retrospective analysis done right now is really is you’re looking at a top line. You’re not I you have not talked about gross profit, net profitability for Black Friday, Cyber Monday because in most cases, I have to assume, especially with these steep discounts, which 40%, 30%, 20%, 60, I’ve seen some 60% like.
00:13:03:20 – 00:13:20:22
Ralph
Those are probably not profitable. However, you need to make your Black Friday Cyber Monday campaigns irresistible enough to stand out in order to get the revenue. However, you’re not mentioning profit here. Is that something that a business should be looking at or a marketing department at this point?
00:13:21:00 – 00:13:22:20
Lauren
Now we’re talking March stupid offers.
00:13:22:22 – 00:13:25:12
Ralph
Oh really?
00:13:25:14 – 00:13:27:02
Lauren
Yeah. So a lot of people a little bit.
00:13:27:02 – 00:13:29:06
Ralph
Oh, I’ve never seen stupid.
00:13:29:08 – 00:13:48:16
Lauren
Yeah. But yeah, yeah, yeah. You know the ones that someone suggesting that’s a really good idea because I saw it on TikTok. Because someone else in the industry is doing the exact same thing. Well, they’re doing it. It must be good. Really. It’s like when you look at people with bigger houses and you’re like, oh my gosh, they must be doing well, even though they’re in their mortgage debt to their eyeballs.
00:13:49:17 – 00:13:51:20
Lauren
Okay, let’s see what offer time say welcome.
00:13:51:23 – 00:13:56:21
Ralph
I bet you don’t have any personal experience with this. There’s no frustration. I sense in your voice.
00:13:56:21 – 00:14:01:18
Lauren
Absolutely. My clients are perfect. They never make silly offers. Ever, ever, ever, never.
00:14:01:18 – 00:14:03:20
Ralph
Well, at least they’re making offers.
00:14:03:22 – 00:14:23:01
Lauren
That’s good. Oh, you know what? Let’s change the bar here. Right? The bar is. Are they having an offer? That’s right. So, like, I think right now with Andromeda and with so many things that are changing, the best opportunity is agency partners and brands together can remove resources off of the media buying. Because so much of that is now in strategy.
00:14:23:07 – 00:14:43:17
Lauren
And you can apply that towards creating new messaging, creating new angles and creating new offers. Making new offers does not necessarily mean giving away a different discount. You can bundle stuff together. It’s having a new offer and selling something. More options you give to the cell, the more opportunity you can take in receiving cash collected or the 16 digit swipe.
00:14:43:19 – 00:15:00:02
Lauren
So creating offers, right? If we if we lower the bar and say, did you have an offer this holiday season? Yes or no? If you did, awesome. And then if you’ve done offers before now I’m going to hold you to a different degree and say like, okay, first question. If anyone’s like, did I ever make a stupid offer for Black Friday?
00:15:00:06 – 00:15:05:00
Lauren
My first question to you is going to be, who made that offer? Who decided the offer?
00:15:05:00 – 00:15:05:21
Ralph
Can you give me an example?
00:15:06:01 – 00:15:08:12
Lauren
So let’s say you’re doing a 60% off offer.
00:15:08:13 – 00:15:11:12
Ralph
Okay. 60% off everything in the store, right?
00:15:11:12 – 00:15:14:21
Lauren
Oh, God. Oh, sorry. Hold on. Calm down.
00:15:14:23 – 00:15:15:21
Ralph
Well, it’s.
00:15:15:23 – 00:15:16:20
Lauren
Like I.
00:15:16:22 – 00:15:40:12
Ralph
Said, I know I have seen it like that’s. I haven’t seen one of those in quite some time. But we did have a client for years and years that at a perpetual 60% off, all they really did is just jack up their prices. J.C. Penney is no, no. Okay. Or Walmart. That was actually it was in the it was in the fitness space, believe it or not.
00:15:40:12 – 00:15:48:07
Ralph
Okay. So it was fitness equipment. So anyway, 60% off all the time. Anyway, bad deal eventually went on,
00:15:48:09 – 00:16:06:05
Lauren
So. Well, it’s a great deal of in the eye of the consumer, especially if you’re already existing customer, because I am rewarded so well for waiting where I think the challenges like. So. I’ll go back to first question who came up with the idea that 60% off probably came up from a marketer because the marketer is going to have so much success selling 60% off the whole store.
00:16:06:10 – 00:16:32:07
Lauren
It’s just easier for them. Your marketing team should not be dictating your sales strategy and your discount. You can give suggestions, but if your CFO does not come into the conversation, you could be giving away a loss that you’re not prepared to handle in the 2026 fiscal year. And what I mean by that is, if you’re giving 60% off everything that’s lazy, okay, that’s like using an adult coloring book for as your marketing strategy.
00:16:32:08 – 00:17:01:21
Lauren
Right? Like it’s there’s no plan there. We’re not doing a paint by numbers, just playing like, okay, this is fun and relaxing. What we want to do is get into the physics behind it, such as we can have some products as high as 60%, but we still need to have net profit on each individual sale. If you have a consumable good with an expiration date, you need to liquidate that inventory as fast as you can and you can get those steeper discounts, because having that loss of inventory and paying that storage won’t be worth it.
00:17:01:21 – 00:17:23:00
Lauren
So I’m okay if you take a loss if you were going to take that loss anyways for the product, not moving. But I’m not okay if you’re applying that same discount at a loss to some of your best sellers that people would be buying anyways, your offers can be supplied from marketing, but your CFO or the person who knows the numbers who’s looking at the profitability has to give clearance on it.
00:17:23:00 – 00:17:43:18
Ralph
Got it. That’s a big differentiator right there. That’s a major difference between just 60% off. But we’re using that as our sort of stupid offer right now. But if it is on a consumer product that is refillable needs more like initial sale. So so let’s talk.
00:17:43:18 – 00:17:46:04
Lauren
About I’m gonna have a different style for subscription.
00:17:46:09 – 00:18:04:08
Ralph
For as well. I’m trying to nail down like people are listening to the show right now and they’re trying to analyze, did I have a good Black Friday, Cyber Monday or not where our sales were up? But I really want to know, like my books don’t really close until probably the middle part of the month, but I have to figure out, okay, was it profitable?
00:18:04:08 – 00:18:28:07
Ralph
Was it not profitable? People might not really know. So sale having come in, sales, having come in, whether they’re profitable or not, is sort of the question mark at this moment in time. What do you do next? However, even if you took a loss for Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and you had a great Cyber Monday, Black Friday because your sales.
00:18:28:07 – 00:18:28:23
Lauren
Were great cash.
00:18:29:01 – 00:18:29:10
Ralph
Flow, great.
00:18:29:10 – 00:18:48:18
Lauren
Revenue. Okay. So let’s let’s say you did the 60% offer. You didn’t think about looking at discounting inventory that’s expiring, moving inventory that hasn’t like lifted anything like that. You’re you’re not part let’s say this percent off. The thing that you want to look at next is okay, let’s look at who gave you that money. Right. I need you to break out your list and segment it.
00:18:48:20 – 00:19:04:21
Lauren
How many of the people that bought from you bought within the last 90 days? How many of the people that bought from you on Black Friday bought 90 days or more? And how many people that bought from you hadn’t given you any money in over a year? For me, if you have people like that has.
00:19:05:00 – 00:19:19:15
Ralph
That again, actually. Great. Do that. Break down, Jessica, because I think this is really, really important. This is the time to do it because I don’t know, is if you’re going to get a PNL for November by the time you’re listening to this, but like, you can go into your Shopify store, you can go into your back end and actually figure these numbers out.
00:19:19:15 – 00:19:21:08
Ralph
So break that down again for me.
00:19:21:10 – 00:19:43:21
Lauren
Yeah. So even if you’re if you’re in the service space business, this is if you’re a brick and mortar, depending on what your CRM allows you to know, you want to understand how many people that bought from Black Friday had previously purchased from you within 90 days. Okay, those people will give them a name. Those people that bought with you in 90 days are the people that would have given you money anyways, right?
00:19:43:21 – 00:19:49:07
Lauren
So that was just you just lost. You gave away money. Okay, that’s your giveaway money list.
00:19:49:09 – 00:19:49:16
Ralph
You give.
00:19:49:16 – 00:20:10:05
Lauren
Away. Okay, okay. We’ll call them your donor list. Right. Like there’s your nonprofit list. You feel goods on goodwill. Yeah, exactly. Your goodwill, your it’s your nonprofit. You’re nice. Making the world a better place and rewarding the people who are with you. Okay, so that people, those that bought from you within 90 days, we’re going to give you more money anyways.
00:20:10:06 – 00:20:16:12
Lauren
How much more? That could be debatable, but they were going to give you money anyways. Assuming you got a good product or service.
00:20:16:16 – 00:20:20:22
Ralph
They just got a taste of everything at a discounted rate or through a bundle or whatever it happens.
00:20:21:00 – 00:20:39:18
Lauren
Well, if they bought from you in the last 90 days before the Black Friday, sorry. Let’s be clear. Right? If they bought from you the last 90 days, they already liked your product enough to come back right? Or they liked your service enough to come back, or they enjoyed their in-person experience enough to come back. Okay. Which is again, it’s I’m calling your number.
00:20:39:19 – 00:20:57:15
Lauren
They would have given you your money anyways. How much? We don’t know yet. Okay. So then we’re going to look at hopefully how many people ideally because they took advantage. So that but then we that’s that’s layer three. All right okay. So the first layer is looking at the segmentation of your audience. You are it’s okay. But it’s good because you know exactly where this conversation is going.
00:20:57:15 – 00:21:05:00
Lauren
And if you’re listening and you’re getting out of it to us that you’re following along, well, if not, you got to play it back at half speed.
00:21:05:02 – 00:21:11:01
Ralph
So I’m asking you to repeat yourself. Okay. So people who bought from you in the last 90 days pre Black Friday.
00:21:11:03 – 00:21:11:18
Lauren
Pre Black.
00:21:11:18 – 00:21:14:18
Ralph
Friday. Anyway you just gave them a gift okay. That’s group. So you’ve to.
00:21:14:18 – 00:21:35:09
Lauren
Look at specifically those that bought in your Black Friday offering. If they if you didn’t discount because we’re getting everyone has everything was discounted. If people that bought non discount stuff we’re going to we’re we’re looking at assumption. Anyone that bought your Black Friday Cyber Monday offer. That’s what we’re looking at. If that’s your whole website that’s anything in your Black Friday Cyber Monday sales period.
00:21:35:11 – 00:21:58:00
Lauren
So 90 days before they purchase in the sales period, had they had another purchase? Awesome. We’re calling them your donor goodwill list will be nicer to the goodwill list. Thanks for being a customer. Right. Okay, then we’re going to look at who did not buy within the last 90 days, but bought the 90 days before. So they bought once in the last six months, but not so recent.
00:21:58:02 – 00:22:24:00
Lauren
This list is the person that like when we have that segmented list, this is a list that’s ripe with potentially customer service. That can give you an understanding of why they didn’t rebuy, did they not like your product enough at the full price? Therefore they’re only buying it at a discount? Or did you not market to them enough that they forgotten like, oh okay, this discount, good reminder I’m going to get it.
00:22:24:05 – 00:22:44:09
Lauren
That 180 day list that didn’t buy in the last 90. So that’s like 91 to 180. That list is your opportunity list. And your Black Friday, cyber Monday is great for them because these are you failed to market to them, or your customer service failed to deliver on the promise of your product or service.
00:22:44:11 – 00:22:46:02
Ralph
You reactivated them.
00:22:46:04 – 00:23:08:03
Lauren
You reactivated them. Out of this, it’s important that we segment them because when we connect with them after Black Friday, we are going to be measuring the velocity to their next out. Okay. So then what we have is anyone who hasn’t bought in at least six months, like we’re going to like six months. Plus these are people that maybe never bought from you.
00:23:08:05 – 00:23:19:17
Lauren
These are people that maybe bought from you forever and a half ago. We have to look at those three different lessons, see how much of our Black Friday, Cyber Monday sales came from those audiences?
00:23:19:19 – 00:23:40:23
Ralph
That’s a super easy thing to do. I mean, provided that you have us here on the can actually pull this information, you can do it easily within Shopify but stratify that out, okay. And on that. So the actions you would take here first week in December, you’re now looking at those lists. First one basically good will list. Next one.
00:23:41:01 – 00:23:43:14
Ralph
You kind of got them back. You reactivated them to a.
00:23:43:18 – 00:23:44:12
Lauren
Reactivated.
00:23:44:12 – 00:23:50:23
Ralph
List but hasn’t bought 180 days. Plus, what would you kind of there different there.
00:23:51:01 – 00:23:52:21
Lauren
Yes. This is a list where.
00:23:52:23 – 00:23:53:21
Ralph
Yeah.
00:23:53:23 – 00:24:18:20
Lauren
This is going to be the hardest list for you to go after. This is the list where I’m assuming you have a net loss because maybe they’re new customers, which is great if you have new customers, because then you get to like kind of restart a different period. But we’re specifically looking at like Black Friday NPIs because that list that they have not bought from you in more than six months or ever have bought from you, I’m going to assume that every customer acquired from that list was at a loss.
00:24:18:22 – 00:24:43:04
Lauren
Now, potentially you didn’t give away a huge discount on your 60%. Still, like you just have insane margins. Excuse me? You have outrageous margins, but that’s my assumption. Anyone that hasn’t bought from you in six plus months is assumed. Got a loss, and if they’ve previously bought from you before. So even so, you break that up is like never bought from you or previously bought from you before you have been paying and investing in marketing on that list.
00:24:43:06 – 00:25:02:08
Lauren
So now we’ve got those three set up. You can say like for if you want to count the new new people because then they’re even further than the six months they’ve never bought from you. The next layer that we’re then going to look at is you need to start looking at that list and see what is the average velocity to a repurchase, the people that bought from you, that goodwill list, all of them.
00:25:02:11 – 00:25:26:01
Lauren
Your marketing efforts to them should be on getting reviews and building that list to being a subscriber. If you have a subscription available, or a renewal of your service, or a repeat loyalty program, the people that bought from you in the last 90 days and participate in your Black Friday Cyber Monday offer, your efforts need to be focused on evangelizing them into a review or into a subscription.
00:25:26:03 – 00:25:33:19
Lauren
Because if you gave away all that goodwill discount and they would have bought from you already, the best way to compensate.
00:25:33:21 – 00:25:34:12
Ralph
Them.
00:25:34:14 – 00:25:40:05
Lauren
For that loss of margin is to earn it back in brand equity.
00:25:40:07 – 00:25:40:20
Ralph
Yep.
00:25:40:22 – 00:25:42:06
Lauren
And in subscription.
00:25:42:08 – 00:25:54:11
Ralph
A little bit of reciprocity to a certain degree. But also these subscription play is a key one. If you do have a subscription, which you and I love. Subscription models, of course. Like, oh, wasn’t.
00:25:54:13 – 00:25:54:23
Lauren
Predictable.
00:25:54:23 – 00:26:18:23
Ralph
Money. Yes. Predictable money. We could. So all right. So these are all like campaigns that you would do I’m thinking email first, but then I mean a little bit harder to do with ads. But like really this is like an email follow up sequence, maybe a SMS to a certain degree. Like you’re stratifying these out with different messaging options here between now.
00:26:19:01 – 00:26:29:10
Ralph
And we’re also dealing with like time crunch here because we’re talking to maybe a lot of e-commerce brands. They got to ship stuff. So it’s like you can’t market.
00:26:29:14 – 00:26:56:13
Lauren
Your off or fulfillment. There’s a lot of services that do it. So the thing that you want to look at these 90 days, you have to build brand equity because this is the like you’ve lost money. You’ve lost money that you were supposed to get. The opportunity cost is high, but you can leverage it stronger. So when I would then break that apart, if you’re e-commerce, how many people like you need for what’s your average order value and then how many people bought over the average order value.
00:26:56:13 – 00:27:16:18
Lauren
So we’re going to split that again. So you have your goodwill list. We want to split it again. How many superseded your average order value and how many. You just took another one. So that one like if they just took another one they like they’re like okay, they’re just opportunist. But if they bought more than that, did they potentially buy out the additional revenue that they would have gotten in December, in January, in February?
00:27:16:18 – 00:27:35:10
Lauren
Because a lot of people are like, I’m going to bulk up. Are they the Costco list? So if you break your goodwill list, you have who were Costco buyers and who were like regular performers. So again, it’s like you then you have to like be mindful of what that forecast is, and then look at that list and look at their behaviors.
00:27:35:12 – 00:27:49:15
Lauren
Because if they bulked up, are they like what I would do if you have that Costco goodwill is yeah, whether it’s email, whether it’s just mess, whatever. Those pieces mindful of text messages pay for us. Mess. But all of those components into it. If you have those Costco buyers, you need to start telling them why these are the best gifts.
00:27:49:17 – 00:27:58:00
Lauren
You need to get them to not consume this a but become evangelist referrals passes out to their friends and neighbors so that you can get them to rebuy.
00:27:58:04 – 00:28:17:14
Ralph
So we’re really talking about like Alvie, above the average, those are your Costco buyers because they’re bulking up and then a of a below average, which needs to know these by the way, you can get all these empties if you don’t know what the hell we’re talking about over a tier 11 scam, for example, I believe it’s still alive at perpetual traffic.com/mpi.
00:28:17:16 – 00:28:29:15
Ralph
Either way, you can get the checklist there. All right. So you’re stratifying these two different buyers. And the AOF below I’m going to playfully say those are the Walmart buyers because they’re just looking for you okay.
00:28:29:17 – 00:28:32:04
Lauren
Yes I like it Costco.
00:28:32:04 – 00:28:34:20
Ralph
You got Costco’s. You got the Walmart ers.
00:28:34:22 – 00:28:39:02
Lauren
Okay Walmart Chris I love it I love it I love it. We’re co-creating this together okay amazing.
00:28:39:03 – 00:28:39:16
Ralph
I like this.
00:28:39:19 – 00:28:40:12
Lauren
Let’s go back.
00:28:40:16 – 00:28:43:06
Ralph
Everybody listening. Like I said. But what makes people listen.
00:28:43:08 – 00:28:45:12
Lauren
We’re talking to each other and this is our call.
00:28:45:12 – 00:29:05:11
Ralph
So that’s right. Nobody’s listening to worry a quarter of a million people every month. No problem. All right. So those are two very different. So you’ve stratified out the list into your three segments, which I already went through. Now you’re looking at the average of a and we’re not talking about Novi here probably, but let’s just say a new.
00:29:05:13 – 00:29:24:07
Lauren
Average order value. We’re looking at a regular average order value with compensation like you might have to take a mirror of it. So you could choose your average order value for the Black Friday holiday. If you’re giving 60%, your average order value is definitely gonna be different. If you’re regularly doing $48 and you’re giving 60% 60% of $48, I’m not going to play that math.
00:29:24:07 – 00:29:41:00
Lauren
We’ll just say it’s $32. Then at $32 being the average or value, let’s say they maybe go up a little so they buy 40 instead of 48. You can choose. I’m not getting nitty gritty with you and your business and like it always it depends. The two best words for any marketer. So looking at those.
00:29:41:00 – 00:29:41:13
Ralph
Like having.
00:29:41:13 – 00:29:43:05
Lauren
Said the regular offer easy.
00:29:43:06 – 00:30:01:00
Ralph
The offer has a lot to do with this too. So like if you’re listening you’re like, well, wait a second, I did a bunch of bundles. So my idea of yeah, is greater that for everyone. What do I do there? But if I did discounting and maybe with the purchase option to be able to buy in bulk, that’s a whole different set because.
00:30:01:01 – 00:30:09:12
Ralph
So it’s sort of does depend on your offer with a bundle you’re looking at a of which is probably going to be higher no matter what. If that was what your offer.
00:30:09:12 – 00:30:20:06
Lauren
Potentially it depends on the size of the bundle. Like the always it depends. And so there’s no blanket answer for everyone, which is why fortunately you hire people to look into your business.
00:30:20:08 – 00:30:22:00
Ralph
And that’s it. Yep.
00:30:22:01 – 00:30:41:11
Lauren
So when we’re looking at that you understand we’ve got the Walmart and we got the Costco folks. What I want to do is now you look at that and you can see what percentage of your Black Friday, Cyber Monday success came from those two divisions. And then what you want to do is monitor closely their behaviors over the next three months.
00:30:41:13 – 00:31:01:18
Lauren
Those Costco buyers, if you have people like also look at the exceptions like, I haven’t done this and I’m not saying to throw it into lines and just like have I do the analysis, I can’t make that recommendation because I haven’t done it myself personally. But it could be something that you could try like, hey, find me. Who is the highest number of people like you might have?
00:31:01:18 – 00:31:17:19
Lauren
Someone that could be wholesale opportunities in that list. You might have someone that could have an affiliate opportunity in that list. Those Costco buyers, if you have someone that’s like, oh, they went above and beyond. What’s great is to look at the exceptions when see what those individuals were.
00:31:17:21 – 00:31:34:15
Ralph
That’s a really good point. So a client of ours always scans their Shopify. For these buyers that are like buying they sell case. There’s certain specific types of cases like more than I think it’s like 15 or 20. They’re like wow, that is a wholesale opportunity.
00:31:34:15 – 00:31:38:10
Lauren
So they do arbitrage or arbitrage you and fighting. You.
00:31:38:12 – 00:31:44:08
Ralph
Yeah. Well yeah. Yeah. There is that I mean I suppose I mean.
00:31:44:10 – 00:31:46:22
Lauren
But they’re saying 15 cases or more wholesale.
00:31:46:22 – 00:32:07:04
Ralph
For sure. Yeah. Well they’re saying all right, well I’m gonna call that person, see if we can set up a wholesale arrangement with them and see exactly why they purchased. That’s been one of the best things that they did is just making those, you know, being able to sort of dissect your list. And I think this is something that business owners are like, or maybe marketing directors are just like, we’re too busy to do this.
00:32:07:04 – 00:32:19:19
Ralph
This is actually everything. Yeah. Because you’re going you’re analyzing the profit and loss of like, how did Black Friday, Cyber Monday do? But you should be doing this anyway on a regular basis just to be able to identify opportunities.
00:32:19:19 – 00:32:36:06
Lauren
You you get. But what’s good is you have a huge amount of data that you can pierce through. So if we’re not doing this regularly, this is something that you can try. And then maybe work into your quarterly planning and work into your call. We don’t a lot of our listeners, I don’t know if they have data analysis teams.
00:32:36:08 – 00:33:00:18
Lauren
I don’t know if they have growth strategists support on their current accounts, like if they’re whatever their service provider is doing. But all that to say, like, yeah, what we’re saying now for Black Friday is something that you could do progressively, but if nothing else is important to evaluate the efficacy of your Black Friday, Cyber Monday after. So if we’re looking at those flows, you find those, maybe they’re wholesale opportunities, maybe they’re arbitrage ING you and they’re going to hurt you later.
00:33:00:20 – 00:33:15:13
Lauren
Maybe it’s fraud. I mean, we don’t talk about fraud, but especially in the Black Friday, Cyber Monday. Like those things happen. So it’s always important to look at your exceptions. So we’re looking at the exceptions for Costco. And then you what you want to do is monitor their behavior over the next 90 days. Look at that list.
00:33:15:14 – 00:33:42:10
Lauren
Are they engaging with your emails? Are they continuing to engage with your brand? Have your email team evaluate like how is this segment performing? Because again, this is where a 90 days from now are they? What is the velocity to a repeat sale from those list on average. And you can say and like great, if you can get someone to rebuy your product at 30, 60 or 90 days after Black Friday, Cyber Monday, you one.
00:33:42:12 – 00:33:59:05
Ralph
You have one. But that velocity repurchase super important. So but it starts right now really I mean this is this is what you should be. This is what you should be analyzing so you can plan out literally you’re talking about like planning out your first quarter of 2006 here.
00:33:59:07 – 00:34:11:06
Lauren
And a lot of and and pre-planning. If you’re going to give that same offer for Black Friday next year because just repeating the same offer is easy. But is it profitable?
00:34:11:11 – 00:34:16:00
Ralph
Did it work? It might have increased sales. That’s like the.
00:34:16:04 – 00:34:18:09
Lauren
Delusion of success.
00:34:18:11 – 00:34:18:23
Ralph
Yes.
00:34:19:05 – 00:34:28:01
Lauren
All of this cash makes anyone happy. And then what happens? You go buy a Lamborghini and the taxman comes. You like shit.
00:34:28:03 – 00:34:47:23
Lauren
Mistakes were made. It’s true. I’m not speaking specifically about any certain client. Definitely not speaking specifically about a certain past client. And it was to that point, I don’t know, it’s it’s really important to be mindful that like my takeaway for today’s episode is Black Friday. Cyber Monday sales is ever for your customer, but it is not over for you.
00:34:47:23 – 00:35:11:20
Lauren
The business owner. Let’s take some time. Let’s look at it. You and I have talked specifically about, you know, the goodwill audience and the Costco and Walmart and ways to look at them and see what’s potential for those if anyone finds this type of stuff interesting, I am totally open to sharing, like more of how we can look at those other audiences and ways to reengage them and to understand the profitability of a post Black Friday.
00:35:12:01 – 00:35:18:12
Lauren
But I’m going to put on the listener. You guys have to tell us you want to leave good comments, leave good reviews to the Spotify, and we’ll let you know.
00:35:18:14 – 00:35:38:21
Ralph
Yeah, especially on the YouTube channel. This has been tremendous. And I think, I know you have to get back to work soon. So do I, I suppose. Thankfully my team is doing a really good job this year, so. But I do remember I know go teams. Thank God for the teams. But yeah, I mean, this is a crazy time of year.
00:35:38:21 – 00:35:56:08
Ralph
But yeah, I think there’s a lot of lessons to be learned here. And I don’t think I’ve ever heard anybody talk about this specific part of the analysis post Black Friday, Cyber Monday. As much as people are really just sort of focused on the vanity metrics and like, yeah, that’s it, and then don’t really do anything with it and then just repeat the same mistakes.
00:35:56:08 – 00:36:17:00
Ralph
If they stay in business like year after year, there’s one client, like I said, yes, they eventually did not stay in business. The point is this is that there’s a ton of data that’s there. It’s all in your CRM. You just have to be able to stratify it out here. And I think you’ve done a really good job of like being able to look at the three different audience types and then figure out your average order value.
00:36:17:00 – 00:36:33:16
Ralph
Depends. It like all this depends. It depends on what your offer was was a pure play discount. Was it a bundle. What was it. You know, service based businesses, e-commerce business, digital products, businesses, all those sorts of things. Taking all that into consideration. But now is the time to do the analysis. Maybe take a Saturday and do it.
00:36:33:16 – 00:36:37:13
Ralph
Go into your CRM. It’s going to be worth it, you know.
00:36:37:14 – 00:36:57:06
Lauren
Yeah. Or partner with your agencies. They might be able to help you. And as a strategic conversation in an all hands meeting, again, a lot of the things that like, Ralph, you and I even provide like people hire us are our hands buyer our team to do the media buying, to do the email execution, to do the creative content strategy and all those pieces.
00:36:57:08 – 00:37:13:05
Lauren
But some of these, like bigger things or conversations at the CMO should be leading their conversations at your growth strategies. If you have that as a service or if you’re bringing on consultants for it, like this is kind of the stuff that gets missed because we get so excited by this huge amount of cash.
00:37:13:06 – 00:37:13:12
Ralph
Right.
00:37:13:12 – 00:37:30:02
Lauren
But I’m going to invite you. I know we have matured from it. I’m not saying that like we’ve always been doing this. This is just how we have been graduating over the years to ways that we can best confirm that what we did wasn’t a sprint of success, but a part of a marathon of growth.
00:37:30:04 – 00:37:54:21
Ralph
Right. It’s just not a it’s not a sugar rush. It really is. It’s part of your overall, like, business strategy. And this is 10 or 15 years of experience doing this. So it’s like, this is the real deal. So anyway, this is great. Obviously we’ll leave links in the show notes for anything that we mentioned here. If you don’t have the NPI checklist check that out over at Metro traffic.com/mpi or tier 11.com/npi.
00:37:54:23 – 00:38:13:17
Ralph
Download that sucker integrated into your business. Share it with your entire team. And of course wherever you listen to podcasts, leave us a rating and review. And we really appreciate everyone who does listen and keeps this show going every single week. And it’s, you know, we do it for you because we’re trying to teach people how to do things the right way.
00:38:13:19 – 00:38:19:10
Ralph
Lauren Petrillo because there’s a lot of people out there that are teaching this stuff the wrong way.
00:38:19:12 – 00:38:20:17
Lauren
Yes. Robert Burns.
00:38:20:22 – 00:38:41:17
Ralph
Yes. So they know that, you know, it’s an H or an A Petrillo MBA with a little, you know, computer person, like, like I don’t think cream profile. And we had to do this all through metrics that matter and growth at scales. And that’s how we do this show here. So anyway, on behalf of my amazing co-host Lauren E Petrillo.
00:38:41:18 – 00:39:04:22
Ralph
So till next show, see you.
